About this market/account

The only way this account can make mana from trader bonuses. This account is dedicated to making interesting and cool markets. If you would like to support this cause donations will be appreciated.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028 (12:00 AM UTC), OpenAI's official valuation is verified to be strictly greater than Anthropic's official valuation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Valuation Definitions:

• If Private: Valuation will be determined by the post-money valuation of the most recent primary funding round (or official company-backed tender offer/secondary sale) announced by the company or widely reported by authoritative financial media (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal). Unofficial secondary market platforms (e.g., Forge Global, Rainmaker Securities) will not be considered.

• If Public (Post-IPO): Valuation will be determined by the daily closing market capitalization (outstanding shares multiplied by share price).

• Hybrid Comparison: If one company is public and the other is private, the public company's daily closing market capitalization will be compared directly against the private company's latest official post-money valuation.

Verification Sources:

• Official company press rooms: OpenAI News and Anthropic News.

• Reputable financial news outlets: Bloomberg, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal.

• Public stock data from Yahoo Finance if either company undergoes an IPO.