I’ve re-opened the market, and we’ll follow the clarification as mentioned earlier and in the description - the market will resolve based on the person who is actually on the ballot.

It’s possible that we will resolve early, depending on the situation.

I've temporarily closed the market, since there is clarification needed on what happens if Platner wins the vote but also withdraws and is replaced by someone else. The potential cases I see:

• This all blows over, Platner is the nominee the whole way through (clear YES)

• Platner drops out before the primary, but still wins the primary, someone else is on the ballot in November (unclear)

• Platner drops out before the primary, doesn't win the vote count (clear NO)

• Platner drops out after the primary, after winning the primary, someone else is on the ballot in November (unclear)

• Something else I'm still missing?

Once these cases are clear, we can re-open the market.

@EricNeyman Looking for your decision here.

@Gabrielle Thanks for closing the market. My current inclination is to decide this market based on the person who is on the ballot in November by virtue of having been selected to appear on the ballot by the Democratic Party. This would mean that your "unclear" cases would resolve NO.

I'm interested in feedback/pushback on this!

@Gabrielle @EricNeyman The description is shockingly clear, in my view. "Which Democrat will face her?" This is not a question about who wins the primary, it is a question about the ultimate "nominee" (as the title says) who faces Collins. Under this interpretation, both of the "ambiguous" scenarios would resolve NO.

The only ambiguities I can imagine are

• Platner is technically the "nominee" but is replaced on the ballot (would he really be called the nominee in that circumstance? also, description trumps title usually)

• (this is super unrelated to the current drama) Collins is replaced and so the Democratic nominee doesn't "face her" (but in this case the spirit of the market is that that is irrelevant)

This sounds good to me! I’ll re-open in about an hour if there’s no disagreement.

@Conflux Ah yeah, that's compelling.

@EricNeyman I think it should be based on the June 9th results, and then make a separate market for the ballot.

@Gabrielle @EricNeyman The same market for Iowa, /EricNeyman/2026-democratic-nominee-for-us-sena-h5gOzsPOQZ already resolved to Josh Turek. If you go by November, that market shouldn't resolve until after the deadline to be replaced on the ballot

@DanielTilkin Admittedly subjective but my take is that Manifold has a precedent for such markets for tentatively resolving and then re-resolving if something changes. I believe if Turek is replaced on the ballot that the market is re-resolved. With this Platner one, I’d be okay with a temporary resolution and the the understanding that it will re-resolve if needed, but I think (subjectively) this one is interesting enough that a case can be made for it staying open while the Turek one is not.

I agree with @Conflux.

/BillClintonBubba/will-graph-platner-drop-out-of-the Arbitrage

@EricNeyman assume this doesn't resolve to the initial primary, but after the July deadline for resignation and replacement on the ballot?

@bens or will it just resolve after the primary election on June 9th?

@bens Oof, this is rough to adjudicate but I'd lean toward resolving it based on whoever appears on the ballot in November. What do you think?

@EricNeyman I think this is fair (and goes against my stake in Platner but that's fine)!

platnerbros we did it

That’s it. Platners done. He can’t come back from this

@Jack1 https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-graham-platner-drop-below-70-c?r=SmFjazE

Trade on his if his price goes below 70% in this market

@traders lets break jacks buy wall

@XCorporation im also willing to buy it up if you wanna toss more no

@copiumarc ill do it

@XCorporation ok put up a few

Race is over

Trade on the upcoming Maine poll:

Poll on the Maine election: https://manifold.markets/Jack1/who-would-you-vote-for-in-this-3-wa?r=SmFjazE