The core of the question is to find out which session video Manifold/Manifest will actively choose to release first.
Edit: Based on the comment from Austin below, this supersedes all other criteria.
IF Manifold creates an official discussion space for a single session, resolves to that session. Even if the videos are released and accessible in some form before that. (Whether one or multiple.)
This should help avoid needing to N/A in the cases outlined below.
If Manifold does not create an official discussion space for a single session, we'll use the criteria below.
Background
Manifest/Manifold has promised to release recordings from Manifest 2023:
There is some indication (shared Standup notes) that these may be released one at a time in some kind of organized fashion and advertised somewhere.
This market operates under the presumption that videos will be released in some order and some video will be first.
Resolution Info
It has to be released by Manifest/Manifold. Not someone else. Not a participant. Not a random fan.
If one video comes out before others
If there is one session video published before any others, resolves to that one.
If that one video contains multiple sessions, resolves to the first one in the video
If multiple videos are published at the same time
If one video is clearly first, in a post, blog, market, Discord list, etc., resolves as if that one was the first one published
If there is only a link to a collection of videos on a video sharing site, resolves N/A
If there are multiple separate announcements in different forms/places, with different orders, at about the same time, I'm probably going to resolve N/A
If there is absolutely no indication that one video was chosen to be first, I am probably going to resolve N/A.
If no videos are released in 2023, I will look to the comment section to either extend the market or resolve N/A.
I will not resolve to "None" or "Other".
These 'rules' are not going to be able to cover every possible scenario, I am just trying to explain the heart of the question and you can try to ask more in the comment section. If I don't feel like any video was first, I'm going to resolve N/A.
Adding answers
I don't really know what all was recorded so I can't make an exhaustive list. I tried to add all the ones from Location E - Main Session. There is no guarantee that any of the ones I added were even recorded.
There is a schedule published here https://www.manifestconference.net/schedule
Use the format:
Title (Names)If the title or names are too long, abbrevaite
Use the title from the schedule
I assume things under Main Events are the most likely to be first released, but you can attempt to include other items
Don't duplicate one someone already listed, I will never resolve to the 2nd one created
Resolves after the answer is known.
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There is now a blog post and it specifically highlights a first discussion market. The one listed there is also the first of 5 that now exist in the 🎤 Manifest 2023 Talks group.
This completely satisfies the spirit of the question and I have no hesitation resolving to Journalism panel (Matthews, Alexander).
Recordings of the main talks will be continuously uploaded to our Youtube. We will also be hosting a discussion for each talk on Manifold where you can win bounties and the speakers may interact! The first one is up for Dylan Matthews and Scott Alexander’s fireside chat on Prediction Markets in Journalism!
Based on the comment from Austin, this would be highly likely to resolve N/A given the initial/current market description, if the pool of videos on YouTube is released before the official Manifold discussion zone.
It looks like we have 3 non-bot participants so far. If there is some consensus among the participants that it would be okay to amend the description of the market to account for this, and resolve based on "Which session will have a Manifold official discussion space first", I will update the market description.
This change is in alignment with my original question highlighted at the top of the description -- I am interested what people think will be the first session actively highlighted by Manifold/Manifest. Without a consensus from the existing participants, I'm reluctant to change the description.
@Eliza I'd lean against it on principle, but now that I've sold my other, it doesn't change my betting strategy.
My strategies so far:
The sessions hosted by Manifold staff don't seem like a "Main Keynote" so I am betting No on them because they probably would not want to just pat themselves on the back with the first session released being "Look at us!"
The first one chronologically in the Main schedule that was not by Manifold staff looks like Patrick McKenzie, so if they go chronologically, that seems likely to be first.
I tried to vote up other ones that seem to have "very well known" people
I am still thinking there might be other sessions from different parts of the conference that were recorded that could be added
@Joshua Do you have any idea whether any of the listed sessions were recorded, or anything else not listed?
I know that the Nate one was, not sure which others besides those that were on Destiny's channel. I actually skipped a lot of big panels to go to smaller ones or just talk to people.