Will Hamas carry out at least 3 lethal attacks in the USA in the next year?
66
990
1k
2025
3%
chance

24K Twitter likes for this thread claiming "Hamas has terror cells in the United States. They came in via the porous Southern border. The people in power know this and they also know their will be attacks targeting our major cities."

Resolves YES if there are at least 3 incidents of terror in the USA, each claiming at least 1 life, attributed to Hamas-affiliated terror cells by authorities or by Hamas credibly claiming credit, in the 12 months since the Tweet posted on Oct 8 2023. (The extra time before close gives some time for incident attribution to resolve.)

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Does it count as 3 distinct incidents if they happen simultaneously, but in different places?

Even if the Twitter thread was correct, the chance of "at least 3 incidents of terror" would be near zero. Which means at least that this market is not remotely close to being a test of the thread's credibility.

(I agree it has no credibility; I am just saying that Yudkowsky's market is not relevant, and it isn't.)

predicts NO

Eh, "and they also know their will be attacks targeting our major cities" has "attacks" in plural, so multiple, and "our major cities" also implies over two.

@jacksonpolack If they knew that they would be planning on stopping it, so there would not be "incidents."

predicts NO

The implication is Dementia Joe isn't doing anything about the terrorists because it'd be racist, so the attacks will happen

America is next. Joe Biden and his handlers are responsible for what is set to happen.

upthread is

Phone call I just got from someone who works with a diplomat frightened me and not many things frighten me. I would not be in a big city for the next 12 months.

and downthread

But from what I was told, there are some nations are quietly removing their diplomats from big cities in the United States and Europe, because they know what’s about to happen. I pray I’m incorrect.

That's a strong enough claim it's likely someone in the chain is intentionally fabricating it, I think

predicts NO

@DavidBolin What would be relevant to the tweet, in your opinion? (If you don't want to write / judge a question, I might be interested in doing that part.)

@EvanDaniel "Will anyone be arrested who turns out to have belonged to a Hamas terror cell in the US?"

That is far more likely than any attacks actually being carried out.

predicts NO

@DavidBolin Huh. That doesn't seem to me like it matches up with "I would not be in a big city for the next 12 months" at all.

One arrest, with no requirement that the arrest be terror-related or that the plot be credible or anything like that? Never mind a successful attack? I said I would, so I'll write that up and submit if you want, but it's not the answer I was expecting to hear.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Also, another question: does anyone here believe this might happen with p > 1%?

(i am actually curious and would love for someone to comment & explain why if so)

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@jacksonpolack No. But I expect others will.

predicts NO

I tried that strategy against marcus's limits a few times in the past, and it didn't go well.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@jacksonpolack probability of a single incident is well under 1%. probability of three different attacks is probably like 1 in a million.

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack ISIS propaganda radicalized some Muslims living in the west in the 2010s, right? I suppose that could happen again, although it might not even count. But I wouldn't count it as a zero

sold Ṁ1 of YES

@jacksonpolack Yeah I’m not holding my breath and it’s a tiny position. I also think it’s <1% likely, maybe even <.1%.

@jacksonpolack didn't bet, but I could see the justification if its something you may have believed without the obviously stupid twitter thread. at 1-2% for an entire year, a terrorist group doing terrorist things to an enemies allies isn't that outlandish. of course you could just extend that justification to most terrorist groups, but that might actually be true a such a 1-2% rate

predicts YES

@jacksonpolack if this happens, I think it's plausible that it would be 3 distinct attacks on the same day (e.g. Oct 13 was flagged as an auspicious day by Khaled Meshaal for a global wave of attacks). Funny the Hamas terrorist leadership can chill in perfect safety in Qatar, while dementia Joe makes Qatar a MNNA. On the other hand, Biden won't revoke the "state sponsor of terrorism" label put on Cuba because Florida is a battleground state. How can anyone take the US seriously when it harbors countries harboring terrorists?

predicts NO

@Gurkenglas is that an actual belief or did you just find it funny

bought Ṁ0 of NO

10k limit at 4% if anyone's interested

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