Will 5% of 2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?

Question

Aiming to match this market, but just for donations made before the 90-day bankruptcy period:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica)Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives before August 14, 2022

I'll add that it only counts if the donations are returned if they were legally obligated to (politicians may donate them back in order to avoid legal or PR issues, but it only counts if they're doing it because they had to). I will not trade in this market.

Mar 5, 4:00pm: Will >5% of an FTX political donation received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back? → Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (9 traders, as of May 30, 2025).