What year will the world get fusion? | Manifold

What year will the world get fusion?

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resolved Jun 20

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Basing this off of https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion: "By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid also counts, even if they don't meet these technical requirements." Jun 19, 5:35pm: Oh, and I'm open to ideas around how to resolve this....

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Why close at the end of this year? Typically these long term prediction markets stay open until the even occurs

@ahalekelly I think you're right. I'm going to close this and try again; learning as I go here :)

Perhaps add some responses like "2022-2024" "2025-2029" "2030-2040" "2041 or later" and add in the resolution criteria that you will only resolve to one of the responses you created?

@jfjurchen I think that's a great idea. I'm closing this and will try again shortly :) Writing great prompts turns out to be non-trivial

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