During which 5 year period will the world get fusion?
Using https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion as a guide, where he suggests:
"By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid also counts, even if they don't meet these technical requirements."
Market will resolve to 'never' if we reach 2055 without fusion meeting the above requirements.
Eli Gaultney answered
2036-2040
23%
Eli Gaultney answered
Never
20%
Eli Gaultney answered
2031-2035
9%
Eli Gaultney answered
2041-2045
8%
Eli Gaultney answered
2026-2030
5%
Eli Gaultney answered
2051-2055
0.7%
Eli Gaultney answered
2046-2050
0.7%
Eli Gaultney answered
2021-2025
0.7%
Add your answer
Eli Gaultney answered
2036-2040
23%
Eli Gaultney answered
Never
20%
Bruce Grugett bought M$20
@EliGaultney I don't think it is going to happen. It will be way too expensive to make it commercially viable. I think we will realize that and give up on fusion again because we will want to spend the money on something else.
0
Eli Gaultney answered
2031-2035
9%
Eli Gaultney answered
2041-2045
8%
Eli Gaultney answered
2026-2030
5%
Eli Gaultney answered
2051-2055
0.7%
Eli Gaultney answered
2046-2050
0.7%
Eli Gaultney answered
2021-2025
0.7%
General Comments
One sec while I go look up when ITER is supposed to be fully operational . . .
0
@AndrewHartman Yeah that's what my best guess is based on! I'd be thrilled if that's where we get it :)
0