During which 5 year period will the world get fusion?

Science•Nuclear•Nuclear Power•Fusion Energy

Ṁ608

2055

ALL

Never

0.4%

2021-2025

10%

2026-2030

11%

2031-2035

13%

2036-2040

26%

2041-2045

18%

2046-2050

10%

2051-2055

2050-2075

Using https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion as a guide, where he suggests: "By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid also counts, even if they don't meet these technical requirements." Market will resolve to 'never' if we reach 2055 without fusion meeting the above requirements.

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For inertial confinement fusion experiments, the Q factor is often misleadingly reported as fusion energy released divided by the laser energy delivered to the pellet, ignoring the 1% efficiency of the lasers, making the Q-factor look 2 orders of magnitude higher than it really is. I want a clarification that these shenanigans will not count towards a yes resolution.

@JonathanRay subject to that stipulation, I'd bet "Never" up to 50%+

bought Ṁ10 of 2050-2075

None of the above.

@VoyagerRock didn't read the "5 year period" part oops

answered

Never

@BruceGrugett The question isn't inquiring about the economic breakeven point (which in part depends on the efficiency of all other methods of power generation as well). It's Q > 5, which seems pretty achievable as we've been reaching higher Q values steadily (albeit slowly) for decades without any signs of the trend stopping. The capital investments into the next round of experiments to go further have already been made - so you've effectively betting that not only will they not produce the expected results, they will discover a theoretical hurdle that bars it from ever being a reality. That seems . . . improbable, to say the least.

One sec while I go look up when ITER is supposed to be fully operational . . .

@AndrewHartman Yeah that's what my best guess is based on! I'd be thrilled if that's where we get it :)

answered

Never

bought Ṁ20

@EliGaultney I don't think it is going to happen. It will be way too expensive to make it commercially viable. I think we will realize that and give up on fusion again because we will want to spend the money on something else.