During which 5 year period will the world get fusion?
23
1kṀ6352055
0.6%
6%
Never
0%
2021-2025
7%
2026-2030
12%
2031-2035
16%
2036-2040
39%
2041-2045
13%
2046-2050
6%
2051-2055
0%
2050-2075
Using https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion as a guide, where he suggests:
"By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid also counts, even if they don't meet these technical requirements."
Market will resolve to 'never' if we reach 2055 without fusion meeting the above requirements.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?
30% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?
39% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
33% chance
What year do we get fusion reactors?
Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?
3% chance
When will fusion power become viable?
2041
Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?
51% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?
64% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?
64% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045?
66% chance