During which 5 year period will the world get fusion?
Dec 29, 2055
M$90 bet
Using https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion as a guide, where he suggests: "By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid also counts, even if they don't meet these technical requirements." Market will resolve to 'never' if we reach 2055 without fusion meeting the above requirements.
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2036-2040
23%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
Never
20%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2031-2035
9%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2041-2045
8%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2026-2030
5%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2051-2055
0.7%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2046-2050
0.7%
EliGaultney
Eli Gaultney answered
2021-2025
0.7%
Add your answer
EliGaultney
2036-2040
23%
EliGaultney
Never
20%
BruceGrugett
@EliGaultney I don't think it is going to happen. It will be way too expensive to make it commercially viable. I think we will realize that and give up on fusion again because we will want to spend the money on something else.
0
EliGaultney
2031-2035
9%
EliGaultney
2041-2045
8%
EliGaultney
2026-2030
5%
EliGaultney
2051-2055
0.7%
EliGaultney
2046-2050
0.7%
EliGaultney
2021-2025
0.7%
General Comments
AndrewHartman
One sec while I go look up when ITER is supposed to be fully operational . . .
0
EliGaultney
@AndrewHartman Yeah that's what my best guess is based on! I'd be thrilled if that's where we get it :)
0