Resolution criteria
The market will resolve to YES if, before September 1, 2026 (11:59 PM Moscow Time), any major Yandex.Market fulfillment center or logistics facility is confirmed to have been destroyed or catastrophically damaged by a drone (UAV) attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Definitions & Specifics:
"Major Yandex.Market fulfillment center/logistics facility": Warehouse listed on https://yandex.ru/support/marketplace/ru/storage/storages
Local pickup points (PZVs) and minor local courier hubs are excluded."Destroyed or catastrophically damaged": To qualify, the drone strike must cause significant destruction, such as a major fire, explosion, or structural collapse that:
Destroys a substantial portion of the facility (at least 20% of the building's floor area or its stored inventory), or
Renders the warehouse entirely inoperable, forcing a total suspension of shipping/receiving operations at that facility for at least 7 consecutive days.
Excluded: Minor drone strikes that cause only cosmetic, superficial, or easily repairable damage (e.g., broken windows, minor roof punctures, or localized fires that are quickly extinguished) where operations resume within less than 7 days will resolve the market as NO.
Source of Verification: The strike and the resulting level of damage must be confirmed by credible international, Russian, or Ukrainian news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Meduza, RBC, or Kommersant), or via official statements from local regional governors, emergency services (MChS), or Yandex.Market itself.
Background
In mid-July 2026, Ukrainian forces launched a series of long-range drone strikes targeting several massive logistics centers belonging to Wildberries— one of Russia's largest online retailers. Strikes successfully hit major facilities in St. Petersburg, Elektrostal (Moscow region), Krasnodar, Nevinnomyssk, and Crimea, causing severe fires and destroying significant warehouse capacity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky justified the campaign by claiming these e-commerce giants help transport dual-use electronics and other sanctioned goods to support the Russian military.
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