What will be the highest level of U.S. military action against Cuba by the end of January 31, 2027?

Question

Resolves to the highest level reached by 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2027.

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For this market, armed force occurs if the U.S. Armed Forces do any of the following without the Cuban government’s consent:

Intentionally use weapons against Cuban government personnel or assets, or against any target in Cuban territory, territorial waters, or airspace

Forcibly seize Cuban government personnel or assets as part of a military operation

Physically enforce a blockade or quarantine of Cuba, or an exclusion zone over or around Cuba

Enter Cuba

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U.S. troops enter Cuba if U.S. Armed Forces personnel physically enter land in Cuba outside Naval Station Guantánamo Bay, without the Cuban government’s consent, as part of a military operation. This counts even if no weapon is fired.

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Planning, reconnaissance, sanctions, cyber operations, exercises, regional deployments, routine Coast Guard activity, and routine activity at Naval Station Guantánamo Bay do not count.

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Resolves using the best available public evidence, including official statements and consistent reporting from major news organizations. Events occurring by the deadline count even if confirmed after, so market may stay open or have a delayed resolution if there is credible belief that something may have occurred.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No armed force, followed by Armed force, but no troops enter Cuba and U.S. troops enter Cuba are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Nov 4, 2026).