This market predicts whether Cuba’s current one-party communist regime ceases to govern the country before the end of 2026.

loss of effective political control by the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC)

, not merely protests, economic deterioration, or leadership reshuffles within the same power structure.

 of the following occur before December 31, 2026:

 from major international news organizations (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, El País), official Cuban government statements, and/or recognition by major foreign governments or international bodies.

Ambiguous or disputed outcomes will be resolved conservatively.

Cuba has been governed by a one-party communist system since 1959. Real political and economic power today is concentrated in the 

, and military-run conglomerates such as 

, which controls large segments of tourism, retail, ports, and hard-currency flows.

 predict economic hardship or unrest per se, but whether those pressures result in a 