Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027 at 00:00 Cuban local time., the United States conducts a confirmed kinetic strike on Cuban territory or military assets (air, land, naval), including but not limited to:

Manned aircraft bombing runs

Armed drone strikes

Cruise missile strikes (including those launched from naval vessels or submarines)

This market does NOT include:

Cyber operations

Sanctions or economic measures

Covert sabotage without widely reported confirmation

Resolution will be based on confirmation by the US government or at least two major international news organizations.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (54 traders, as of May 19, 2026).