Ignoring manipulation this should be at the same value as the underlying market.

With manipulation it's much less clear.

@MartinRandall If AI wipes out humanity on Jan 2, 2029 then it’s possible this market resolves NO and the other market resolves YES. They shouldn’t be exactly the same then right?

@DylanSlagh I’d hope we wouldn’t be so clueless as to hold the other below 5% the day before doom?

@deagol perhaps the superintelligent AI has manipulated public opinion 😂

@DylanSlagh Release the Hypno Drones

@DylanSlagh IMO if we ever do get that ASI or AGI, then that market’s (and all the others) probability will stay above 5% right up to the close date, ok maybe goes below a few hours to minutes before close

@deagol I don't know, I think the AI could be pretty convincing that it doesn't plan on destroying humanity. I also think for anthropic reasons the markets will likely be biased lower especially near the close date

@DylanSlagh the more it tries to be convincing, the more sus. The people who designed it would know. This seems obvious to me but then again ppl these days are odd, pretty gullible.

@DylanSlagh no I agree it will be low (I bet NO) but that’s just because I don’t think we get AGI by then

@deagol The only reason I'm betting yes is that I doubt people will pay attention to this market in 6 years and it might not take much mana to push it up to 5. on the other hand there could be multiple 50,000 mana limit orders stopping me (or anyone else) from manipulating this market

@DylanSlagh yeah again if the AI is still dumb those NO limits will be there, if it’s closer to a true AGI (pretty sure there’ll be no doubt whether it is or isn’t) then the limit wall will be on the YES side (edit: assuming this site is still active in 6y of course)