Will there be a high-profile scandal involving AI generated papers submitted as schoolwork before the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 16
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YES

Will there be people upset by actual, documented cases of AI generated papers (essay or greater length) being turned in as schoolwork to be graded as if it were their own work, and reported as a news item on the front page of a major news website (e.g., NPR, BBC, etc.)

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bought Ṁ86 of YES

@RyanMoulton it's on frontpage of https://www.theguardian.com/au for me

predicted YES

@ValeryCherepanov I see a different AI article on the front page: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/10/australia-lagging-behind-on-ai-learning-tech-for-classrooms-report-suggests

This article would not meet criteria, as it does not document anyone caught cheating. I'm surprised that the less interesting article made the front page, so this might change.

predicted YES

@Duncan I definitely saw the article mentioned by Ryan, I used Ctrl+F. Maybe it has some kind of personalization?

predicted YES

@ValeryCherepanov Huh, that complicates things. I've checked on a second browser, and I am seeing differences in how they display articles (with/without photos), so apparently they do some sort of customization. I will be using the browser I don't generally use to browse the web for resolution of this market, since my usual browser might have all kinds of AI/technology related cookies.

predicted YES

@Duncan I had been monitoring The Guardian - AU for the past week, as it seemed that they were gearing up for some AI cheating stories. I am now no longer actively monitoring them; if anyone sees anything relevant, please post here.

predicted YES

@ValeryCherepanov Yep, I am seeing that on both browsers.

predicted YES

Not schoolwork, but related:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.06751.pdf

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I think it's likely the first seed of such a scandal has been sown, but don't expect it to make front page news until later.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

As a professor of English, I've already seen it. Fortunately, these papers have been easy to spot, but the quality has been rapidly improving. It's only a matter of time before a big story breaks.

@SabrinaCaine Interesting. If there were a market asking by what date would the first such scandal happen what would be your median date?

predicted YES

@RobinFoster I think we're definitely going to see reporting about it by the end of 2023. The degree of scandal will depend on how it can be weaponized in the political discourse against teachers, young people or the liberal arts. In terms of a huge scandal, I think the real bomb will be when AI generated writing pops up in somebody's book. More of a journalistic than an academic scandal - used as a shortcut for a rush-to-market type book covering hot topics.

Maybe they should teach kids to rotate shapes instead of arguing with each other about silly topics

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