Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
100
2.1kṀ8064
2026
6%
Bill Clinton
6%
George Bush
2%
Barack Obama
5%
Donald Trump
80%
Joe Biden
0.7%
Other

Carter keeps outliving his death markets. I was kinda tempted to make a "will Carter die at all" market but decided that was one too many silly Carter markets, so here have a serious market instead.

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Is there any reason this market and https://manifold.markets/CivilizedGuy/who-will-be-the-next-us-president-t-PLCCcuc2Eg are so different?

Edit: Oh, it's really new, nvm.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Clinton, Bush, and Trump were all born in 1946.

bet not just on if they die, but where manifold will judge them:

😈Who will go to Hell by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]

😇Who will go to Heaven by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]

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I think it will be like this:

Jimmy Carter in 2024 at age 99

Joe Biden in 2030 at age 87 (coinciding that his birthday is at the end of the year)

Donald Trump in 2035 at age 89

Bill Clinton in 2037 at age 91

George W. Bush in 2038 at age 92

Barack Obama in 2055 at age 94

People are also trading

Will the next President of the United States die in office?
19% chance
Will the next president die while in office?
18% chance
Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
20% chance
Will the US President of the 2024-2028 term die while being the President?
17% chance
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Who will be the next U.S. president born after the beginning of WW2 to die?
Which President will pass away before 2030
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
By 2050, will Jimmy Carter be the United States president with the longest life-span?
79% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
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