Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?
19
1.2kṀ275
2050
14%
United States of America
0.9%
China
1.2%
Japan
1%
Germany
2%
India
1%
United Kingdom
1%
France
1%
Canada
10%
Russia
4%
Italy
11%
Iran
14%
Brazil
5%
South Korea
1%
Australia
20%
Mexico
1%
Spain
1.5%
Indonesia
3%
Saudi Arabia
5%
Netherlands
1.5%
Turkey

Listed are the countries with the twenty largest nominal GDPs as of Dec 18th, 2022.

"Constitutional monarchs" and other nominal heads of states do not count; the person has to hold the most politically powerful position in that country. I will decide which political position this is in the comment section if prompted and add it to the description; for most countries it should be obvious.

Close date updated to 2050-01-01 12:00 am

Politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Will any of the top 10 countries in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of government?
43% chance
Will the country ranked #1 in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of state?
32% chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Which country will have a coup d'état during 2025
Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
17% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
Sort by:

Why is NL so high

I really don't think russia has a >20% chance over the field, or more than Iran.

Did you mean to close this on Dec 25?

@Yev No.

@DeanValentine Is there any way I can fix that?

@DeanValentine There's an edit button next to the close date.

@Yev That I can still access? Where?

@DeanValentine Found it. Thanks.

Wish I could subsidize this

People are also trading

From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Will any of the top 10 countries in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of government?
43% chance
Will the country ranked #1 in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of state?
32% chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Which country will have a coup d'état during 2025
Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
17% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules