Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?

21

Ṁ1.2kṀ527

resolved Mar 21

100%97%

Iran

0.5%

United States of America

0.1%

China

0.0%

Japan

0.0%

Germany

0.3%

India

0.0%

United Kingdom

0.0%

France

0.0%

Canada

1.0%

Russia

0.0%

Italy

0.0%

Brazil

0.2%

South Korea

0.0%

Australia

1.1%

Mexico

0.0%

Spain

0.0%

Indonesia

0.0%

Saudi Arabia

0.0%

Netherlands

0.0%

Turkey

Listed are the countries with the twenty largest nominal GDPs as of Dec 18th, 2022.

"Constitutional monarchs" and other nominal heads of states do not count; the person has to hold the most politically powerful position in that country. I will decide which political position this is in the comment section if prompted and add it to the description; for most countries it should be obvious.

Close date updated to 2050-01-01 12:00 am

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bought Ṁ50 YES

@MilfordHammerschmidt resolves Iran because of Khamenei

Why is NL so high

I really don't think russia has a >20% chance over the field, or more than Iran.

Did you mean to close this on Dec 25?

@Yev No.

@DeanValentine Is there any way I can fix that?

@DeanValentine There's an edit button next to the close date.

@Yev That I can still access? Where?

@DeanValentine Found it. Thanks.

Wish I could subsidize this

People are also trading

From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?

Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?

Who will be the next US President to die?

Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?

Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?

Will the next president die while in office?

Related questions

From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?

Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?

Who will be the next US President to die?

Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?

Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?

Will the next president die while in office?

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