Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 710 GWdc before January 1st 2036.
For the purposes of this market:
“Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial & industrial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed as of the end of calendar year 2035.
The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. Solar Market Insight (2035 Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
If that report clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 710 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
If it clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was < 710 GWdc, this market resolves NO.
If that exact report is unavailable, paywalled in a way that prevents verification, or ambiguous, the resolver should use the best available national‑level data series for cumulative U.S. solar PV capacity (for example from EIA, IEA, NREL, or similarly reputable statistical compilations), with the following preferences:
Series that explicitly report capacity in GWdc;
If only GWac is reported, series that provide a clearly documented DC‑equivalent figure or DC/AC ratio that can be applied consistently;
A single, methodologically consistent series across years, rather than mixing incompatible datasets.
Clarifications and edge cases
Timing.
The condition is about capacity that is in service as of the end of 2035 (i.e. projects that have reached commercial operation and are counted as installed by year‑end), even if the confirming report or dataset is only published in 2036 or later.
If sources give both “end of 2035” and “start of 2036” figures that differ only because of rounding or minor revisions, the end‑of‑2035 value should be used.
Geography.
“United States” includes the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
U.S. territories may be included or excluded as long as the chosen national‑level series treats them consistently across years; the resolver should not mix a series that includes territories with one that does not.
Technology scope.
Only solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity counts toward the 710 GWdc threshold.
Concentrating solar power (CSP) should be excluded unless the primary data source only provides a single combined “solar PV” number that unavoidably bundles PV and CSP and does not separate them, in which case that combined figure may be used as‑is.
DC vs AC, and rounding near the threshold.
Where possible, the resolver should use values explicitly stated in GWdc.
If the best available value is in GWac but the same source provides a DC/AC ratio, the implied DC capacity may be used.
Small discrepancies around the threshold (e.g. 709.8 vs 710.2 GWdc) should be resolved using the most precise, internally consistent estimate available, with the resolver briefly explaining their choice in a comment.
Revisions and conflicting sources.
If multiple reputable sources report slightly different numbers, or figures are later revised, the resolver should use the most recent, methodologically consistent estimate for year‑end 2035 cumulative U.S. solar PV capacity that can reasonably be obtained at the time of resolution.
The resolver should avoid cherry‑picking the most extreme estimate in either direction purely to force a YES or NO outcome.
Intuition / scale (not part of resolution):
At the end of 2024, cumulative U.S. solar PV capacity was on the order of ~236 GWdc, so 710 GWdc corresponds to roughly a tripling over about eleven years.
Getting from ~236 GWdc to 710 GWdc by the end of 2035 would require adding on the order of 40–50 GWdc per year on average between 2025 and 2035 – broadly comparable to, or somewhat above, the record pace of new solar installations seen in the mid‑2020s.
If all of the additional capacity required to hit 710 GWdc were built as ground‑mounted utility‑scale PV, it would imply many thousands of square kilometres of panels; in practice, a substantial share will be on rooftops, parking canopies, and other already‑developed surfaces rather than entirely new greenfield sites.
1,000