Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?
10
190Ṁ1992030
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This would be for an average, not peak, so after accounting for intermittency. Credible estimates will be accepted as source to resolve YES. Solar power does not have to be beamed back, power is counted after conversion to electricity, but before use
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Here's my BOTE calculation for what it would take to reach this figure with Starlink v2:
Starlink v2 mini has a solar array area of about 100 m^2, v2 is expected to be about 1.5x as heavy, I'll assume it will have 1.5x the panels as well. Assuming 300 W/m^2 and panels illuminated 50% of the time, that's 22.5 kW per satellite. To reach this would require 44k Starlink v2 satellites. That's around SpaceX's ultimate goal, but I don't think it's too likely to be reached by 2030.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be more than 10GW of off-earth solar power generation by 2050?
27% chance
Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?
26% chance
Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?
42% chance
Will Our World in Data report at least 1,700 TWh of solar power generated in 2023?
73% chance
Will total solar capacity exceed 6TW at the end of 2030?
91% chance
Will global photovoltaic installations grow from 510 GW in 2023 to 8713 GW in 2030?
Will the world install >2.5 TW of solar panels in 2026?
16% chance
Will a new form of clean energy surpass solar in efficiency by 2030?
17% chance
Will there be 30 people in space at any moment before 2030?
85% chance
Will a large-scale solar geoengineering project be implemented by 2035?
35% chance