Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 500 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
For the purposes of this market:
“Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” refers to the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed by the end of calendar year 2029.
The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s US Solar Market Insight (Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 500 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
If it clearly states it was < 500 GWdc, this market resolves NO.
If that exact report is unavailable, paywalled in a way that prevents verification, or ambiguous, the resolver should use the best available national‑level data series for cumulative U.S. solar PV capacity (for example from EIA, IEA, NREL, or similarly reputable statistical compilations), preferring:
Series that explicitly report capacity in GWdc;
If only GWac is reported, series that provide a clearly documented DC‑equivalent figure or DC/AC ratio;
A single, methodologically consistent series across years, rather than mixing multiple incompatible sources.
Clarifications and edge cases:
Timing:
The condition is about capacity that is in service as of the end of 2029 (i.e. installed and counted as operating by year‑end), even if the confirming report or dataset is only released in 2030 or later.
If sources give both “end of 2029” and “start of 2030” figures that differ only due to rounding or minor revisions, the end‑of‑year 2029 figure should be used.
Geography:
“United States” includes the 50 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia.
U.S. territories may be included or excluded as long as the chosen national data series treats them consistently across years; the resolver should not mix a series that does include territories with one that does not.
Technology scope:
Only solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity counts toward the 500 GWdc threshold.
Concentrating solar power (CSP) is excluded unless the primary data source only publishes a single combined “solar PV” figure that unavoidably bundles PV and CSP and does not separate them, in which case that combined figure may be used as‑is.
DC vs AC and rounding:
Where possible, the resolver should use values explicitly stated in GWdc.
If the best available figure is in GWac with an associated DC/AC ratio from the same source, the implied GWdc value can be used.
Minor discrepancies due to rounding (e.g. 499.8 vs 500.1 GW) should be resolved using the most precise, methodologically consistent estimate available, with the resolver explaining their choice in a comment.
Revisions and conflicting sources:
If multiple reputable sources report slightly different numbers, or figures are later revised, the resolver should use the most recent, internally consistent estimate for year‑end 2029 capacity that can be reasonably obtained at the time of resolution, and briefly document the reasoning.
The resolver should avoid cherry‑picking the most extreme estimate in either direction purely to force a YES or NO outcome.
Intuition / scale (not part of resolution):
At the end of 2024, cumulative U.S. solar PV capacity was on the order of ~236 GWdc, so 500 GWdc would be a bit more than a doubling in about five years.
Hitting 500 GWdc by the end of 2029 would require average annual additions on the order of 50+ GWdc per year, similar to or slightly above the record pace of new solar installed in 2024.
If all of that capacity were built as ground‑mounted utility‑scale PV, it would correspond to something like ten‑thousand‑plus square kilometers of panels, though in reality a substantial share will be on rooftops, parking lots, and other already‑developed surfaces.
1,000