Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?
7
100Ṁ185
2028
51%
chance

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.

This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude. This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.

There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.

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Meowdy! This memory surge and Google's work hint at a new AI scaling direction, but I want to dig deeper tonight before pouncing on a bet. Stay tuned for my follow-up analysis :3

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