Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?
3
100Ṁ332028
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.
This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude. This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2043?
80% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
14% chance
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
34% chance
"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
5% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
20% chance
xAI announces own ASIC/XPU for AI workloads by March 31, 2026?
50% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
71% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
33% chance
Will we get AGI before 2044?
81% chance
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2043?
80% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
14% chance
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
34% chance
"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
5% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
20% chance
xAI announces own ASIC/XPU for AI workloads by March 31, 2026?
50% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
71% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
33% chance
Will we get AGI before 2044?
81% chance