Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any time between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2029, 23:59:59 UTC, a novel or newly emerging infectious disease outbreak (other than COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2) meets either of the following objective criteria:

1. Official Mortality Count: The World Health Organization (WHO) or another consensus intergovernmental health authority officially reports at least 3.0 million cumulative deaths worldwide directly attributed to the pathogen.

2. PHEIC + Excess Mortality: The WHO declares the event a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), and peer-reviewed consensus estimates (e.g., published by the WHO Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 / Excess Mortality, or in The Lancet) estimate at least 5.0 million global excess deaths attributable directly or indirectly to the outbreak within a 24-month period.

Clarifications and Edge Cases:

• Exclusion of COVID-19: Continued circulation, new variants, or secondary waves of SARS-CoV-2 do not qualify. The disease must be caused by a distinct agent or pathogen family.

• Endemic / Existing Diseases: Resurgences of established endemic diseases (such as seasonal influenza, tuberculosis, or malaria) do not count unless caused by a novel strain/pathogen declared as a PHEIC or new pandemic by the WHO.

• If the required mortality thresholds are not reached or officially verified by December 31, 2029, the market resolves to NO.

(Note: The creator may adjust specific mortality thresholds or primary source registries prior to market close if an alternative standard metric is preferred.)

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic caused roughly 7 million officially reported deaths globally, while WHO excess mortality estimates placed the true direct and indirect toll at approximately 14.9 million excess deaths for 2020–2021 alone. Studies in The Lancet estimated excess mortality above 18 million over the same two-year span.

Forecasting literature and epidemiological models generally place the annual probability of an extreme pandemic (similar in severity to the 1918 influenza pandemic or COVID-19) at roughly 2% to 3% per year. Key risks monitored by global surveillance include highly pathogenic avian influenza (such as H5N1 strains adapting to mammals), novel filoviruses, and potential laboratory-engineered or accidental leaks.