Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, a newly emerged or re-emerging infectious disease outbreak meets all of the following criteria:
Official Assessment: The World Health Organization (WHO) formally characterizes the outbreak as a global pandemic or declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for the novel or re-emerging pathogen.
Scale Threshold: Official data from the WHO COVID-19 / Infectious Disease Dashboards or CDC confirms at least 100 million total cumulative confirmed cases worldwide or at least 1 million cumulative deaths within any rolling 24-month period during the 2030s.
If no infectious disease outbreak meets these conditions during the 2030s, the market will resolve to NO.
Edge Cases & Rule Details:
Recurring seasonal endemic strains (such as seasonal influenza or existing SARS-CoV-2 variants) are excluded unless a novel variant or distinct pathogen triggers a new global WHO pandemic characterization and meets the scale metrics.
If the WHO alters its emergency reporting terminology or ceases operations, equivalent official declarations from a recognized global public health entity (e.g., ECDC, CDC, or a UN-backed successor body) will serve as the reference standard.
If official tracking sources conflict or primary dashboards are unavailable, the market creator will resolve the market using consensus figures from leading peer-reviewed epidemiological studies.
Background
The WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020, and characterized it as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. By the time the WHO downgraded the emergency status in May 2023, reported global cases had exceeded hundreds of millions alongside millions of recorded fatalities.
Epidemiologists and biosecurity analysts track pandemic risk by evaluating drivers such as zoonotic spillover frequency, global travel volume, livestock urbanization, and synthetic biology risks. Standard prediction thresholds for a "COVID-scale" event combine international governance declarations with large-scale morbidity or mortality benchmarks.
1,000