Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC), the World Health Organization (WHO) explicitly declares a new infectious disease outbreak to be a pandemic, or declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) that the WHO Director-General or an official WHO statement designates as a pandemic.

• The declaration must apply to a newly emerging pathogen or a novel strain distinct from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Ongoing developments, variants, or waves of COVID-19 do not trigger a YES resolution.

• If the WHO issues a PHEIC declaration for a disease (e.g., mpox, avian influenza) without using the term "pandemic," the market resolves to NO unless an explicit pandemic determination is subsequently made by the WHO before the deadline.

• Official declarations can be verified via the WHO Disease Outbreak News or the WHO Director-General's statements.

• If no such declaration occurs before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), the formal legal mechanism the WHO uses to alert the world to high-threat disease events is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The term "pandemic" is not a formal legal category under current IHR rules, though the WHO Director-General characterized H1N1 (2009) and SARS-CoV-2 (2020) as pandemics. Major pathogens of ongoing surveillance for pandemic potential include high-pathogenicity avian influenza (such as H5N1 strains spreading in mammals and birds) and various filoviruses and coronaviruses.