Will another outbreak on par with covid-19 happen within the decade.
Standard
25
Ṁ6342034
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves yes if another pathogen (zoonotic or not) causes more than 1 million excess deaths due to an outbreak in the next decade. This pathogen does not need to be novel to be included but it cannot include any disease which began as an outbreak before 2024. E.g. Malaria or AIDS etc. wouldn't count unless a significant new strain emerged.
e.g. A second outbreak of a new COVID or flu strain would count and equally new strains of other know diseases are included.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?
28% chance
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
50% chance
In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
2048
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
40% chance
Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
27% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
35% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
59% chance
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
48% chance
Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?
52% chance
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
50% chance