Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2050 (11:59 PM UTC), an international alliance, coalition, or treaty network led or constituted primarily by political parties, movements, or governments widely characterized as far-right enacts and enforces a comprehensive, legally binding ban that effectively outlaws and renders defunct the development, deployment, and operation of generative artificial intelligence and all general-purpose AI technologies globally or across major international jurisdictions.

This market resolves to NO if:

• No such global or multilateral prohibition is enacted and enforced before January 1, 2050.

• Regulatory frameworks, restrictions, or partial bans are enacted that do not equate to a total abolishment/prohibition of generative AI and AI technologies.

• AI technology remains legal and actively developed in major world economies.

Resolution will be determined by consensus reporting in reputable international news outlets and primary treaty/legislative documentation. The market creator reserves the right to clarify the scope of qualifying political coalitions if ambiguous.

Background

Discussions around AI governance have historically centered on regulatory oversight (such as the European Union's AI Act), executive safety standards, and intellectual property/content controls, rather than universal abolition. While various political factions express concerns regarding AI's impact on cultural preservation, copyright, labor, national sovereignty, and societal values, mainstream political coalitions across major powers have largely prioritized national competitiveness and security in frontier technology development over blanket bans.