Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins a majority of seats (at least 218 seats) in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections.

Resolution will be determined once all race results are officially certified or when major decision desks (e.g., AP News, Decision Desk HQ) project a Republican majority. If Democrats or any other coalition win 218 or more seats, this market resolves to NO.

Note on wording: Subjective terms in the title such as "surprisingly" are disregarded for resolution; the market resolves strictly on whether Republicans retain or win control of the House.

Background

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, with all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives on the ballot. Historically, the party holding the presidency tends to lose seats in midterm elections (the "midterm penalty"), making House control particularly competitive depending on the prevailing political and economic environment.