Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030 (11:59 PM UTC), the core institutional framework of the post-WWII rules-based international order formally collapses or ceases to function, operationalized by at least one of the following objective events:

1. Dissolution or Paralysis of the United Nations: The formal dissolution of the UN, or the withdrawal/expulsion of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), or an official cessation of UN General Assembly operations.

2. Collapse of Core Post-WWII Multilateral Pacts: The formal dissolution of NATO, or the formal termination/withdrawal of the majority of founding members from the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).

3. Direct Great-Power War: An officially declared war or direct, sustained conventional military conflict between two or more UN Security Council permanent members (United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, France).

If none of these objective milestones occur before January 1, 2030, this market resolves to NO.

Note for creator: The phrase "international order dies" is inherently qualitative. If you intend to use a different definition (such as a subjective expert consensus or an alternative indicator like the breakdown of the WTO dispute mechanism), please edit the criteria above before trading volume expands.

Background

The "post-WWII international order"—often termed the liberal international order or rules-based multilateral system—was established in the late 1940s under leadership from the United States and allied nations. Its institutional backbone includes the United Nations, the Bretton Woods institutions (IMF and World Bank), the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (now the World Trade Organization), and collective defense alliances such as NATO.

In recent years, geopolitical analysts and scholars have debated whether the order is unraveling due to rising multipolarity, strategic competition between the US and China, the war in Ukraine, increasing protectionism, and gridlock within multilateral institutions. Because conceptual definitions of an order's "death" vary across international relations theory, this market anchors resolution to the concrete structural dissolution of its foundational institutions or open conflict between its guarantor powers.