Will there be major global lockdowns before 2031?
Will there be major global lockdowns before 2031?
Basic
6
Ṁ4272031
31%
chance
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1W
1M
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Resolves as YES if there are major global lockdowns that resemble those that occurred during the covid pandemic, between January 1st 2024 and before January 1st 2031.
In order for this to resolve as YES, a lockdown must have occurred in at least 4 of the following countries before the end date: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
Note that for this to resolve as YES the lockdowns do not necessarily need to result from the same cause (can be pandemic in country A and something else in country B).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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