Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, at least two of the following four events occur, signaling the definitive collapse ("death") of the post-WWII international order:

1. Collapse of the Postwar Security Alliance: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from the treaty.

2. Dissolution of the Global Security Body: The United Nations (UN) is formally dissolved, its charter is formally declared null and void, or the UN Security Council permanently ceases to convene or function for a continuous period of at least 365 days.

3. Collapse of the Bretton Woods Economic Framework: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are both formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from both institutions.

4. Outbreak of Great Power War: A direct, officially declared or internationally recognized interstate military conflict occurs directly between the United States and either China or the Russian Federation, or a direct military conflict occurs between any three of the permanent five (P5) members of the UN Security Council (US, UK, France, Russia, China) simultaneously.

If, as of January 1, 2050, fewer than two of these criteria have occurred, the market will resolve to NO.

Note: In the event of structural ambiguities, the market creator will resolve the market based on consensus from official government declarations and credible, mainstream international news registries (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

Background

The "post-WWII international order"—often referred to as the rules-based or liberal international order—was constructed after 1945 under the leadership of the United States and its allies. Its primary goal was to prevent another catastrophic global conflict, foster economic interdependence, and establish shared international norms. The core pillars of this order include:

• Security: The United Nations (UN) and defensive alliances like NATO.

• Economics: The Bretton Woods institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and later the World Trade Organization (WTO).

• Norms: Respect for sovereign borders, multilateral diplomacy, and international law.

In recent years, geopolitical scholars have increasingly debated whether this system is fracturing. Pressures such as the rise of multipolarity, resurgent nationalism, intense territorial conflicts, and growing strategic rivalry between the US, China, and Russia have led some analysts to declare the old order is already in decline. This market tracks whether the formal institutional frameworks that have defined the post-1945 era will officially collapse before the mid-21st century.