Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, at least one eligible American left-wing pro-democracy or pro-science organization is permanently shut down. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

For the purposes of this market:

• Eligible Organization: Must be a United States-based non-profit organization (such as a 501(c)(3) or 501(c)(4)) established before September 2026. The organization must be widely described by mainstream media outlets or non-partisan political tracking groups (e.g., InfluenceWatch, OpenSecrets, Media Bias/Fact Check) as having a left-leaning, progressive, or center-left political orientation, alongside a core mission focused on pro-democracy advocacy (such as voting rights, election integrity, or countering authoritarianism) and/or pro-science advocacy (such as scientific integrity, climate science advocacy, or evidence-based policymaking).

  • Examples of eligible organizations include, but are not limited to: the Union of Concerned Scientists, Stand Up for Science, Protect Democracy, or the Brennan Center for Justice.

• Shut Down: The organization must formally dissolve, liquidate its assets, have its corporate or tax-exempt status permanently revoked by the IRS or relevant state registrar, or publicly announce the permanent and complete cessation of all active operations.

  • A merger, rebranding, acquisition, or restructuring where a successor entity continues the core mission of the original organization does not count as being shut down.

  • Temporary pauses in operations or structural re-organizations do not qualify.

• Source of Truth: Official regulatory filings (such as the IRS Tax Exempt Organization Search), official announcements from the organization's leadership, or reports from reputable national news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).

• In the event of ambiguity regarding whether a specific organization qualifies under the "left-wing pro-democracy or pro-science" definition, the market creator will make a final determination based on the consensus of reputable watchdog and academic sources.

Background

Non-profit advocacy groups in the United States focusing on progressive causes, democratic norms, and scientific policy frequently find themselves at the center of partisan political debates. Organizations like the Union of Concerned Scientists (founded in 1969) advocate for scientific integrity in federal decision-making and environmental action, often drawing criticism from conservative platforms that characterize them as left-wing lobbying groups.

As debates over scientific consensus, voting rights, and the role of non-profits in political advocacy intensify, some speculate about potential administrative, legal, or financial pressures that could target these organizations. This market tracks whether any major established American left-leaning organization dedicated to democracy or science advocacy will be permanently dissolved or forced to shut down operations before 2050.

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