Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, prior to January 1, 2050, both of the following conditions are met:

1. The United Nations (UN), established by the Charter of the United Nations (1945), is formally dissolved, disbanded, or otherwise permanently ceases its operational existence as a global intergovernmental organization.

2. The World Health Organization (WHO), established by the Constitution of the World Health Organization (1946), is formally dissolved, disbanded, or otherwise permanently ceases its operational existence as a global intergovernmental organization.

If only one of these organizations is dissolved before 2050, or if neither is, the market will resolve to NO.

Definitions & Edge Cases:

• Formal Dissolution: This includes the official termination of the founding treaty/covenant by its member states, or the replacement of the organization by a legally distinct successor body (analogous to the League of Nations formally dissolving in April 1946 and transferring its assets to the UN).

• De Facto Dissolution: If an organization completely ceases operations, shuts down its physical headquarters, stops convening, and has no active member states or budget for a period of at least one continuous calendar year—even if no formal legal termination treaty is signed—it will be considered dissolved.

• Reform vs. Dissolution: Significant structural reforms, charter/constitutional amendments, or name changes do not qualify as dissolution, provided the underlying legal continuity of the organization remains intact.

Background

The United Nations was founded in 1945, and the WHO was established in 1948 as a specialized agency under the UN umbrella. Dissolving either organization is a historically unprecedented step; there are no explicit clauses for voluntary dissolution in their founding documents. Geopolitical tensions occasionally spark debates about the viability of these bodies. For instance, the United States formally finalized its withdrawal from the WHO on January 22, 2026, marking the first time a major donor and founding member exited the organization. While individual member states can unilaterally withdraw or defund these institutions, a total dissolution would require either a formal, collective vote by member states to terminate their treaties, or a catastrophic geopolitical realignment that renders them permanently defunct.