Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple choice market where answers correspond to specific groups, individuals, or outcomes. Anyone can add new answers.

Each answer will resolve independently based on the following criteria:

• An answer representing a group (e.g., "All public health officials in the US", "All scientists involved in COVID-19 research") will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2050, 11:59 PM UTC, credible reporting from major news outlets or official legal records confirms that essentially all members of that designated group have been convicted and incarcerated specifically for actions, policies, or research related to COVID-19 or pandemics. If any significant portion of that group remains un-imprisoned, the answer resolves NO.

• If an answer refers to a specific named individual (e.g., specific public health figures or scientists), it resolves YES if that person is formally sentenced to prison or incarcerated on charges directly stemming from pandemic-era policies, research, or mandates prior to 2050. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

• Broad categorical answers claiming "All scientists" or "All doctors" globally will resolve NO unless an unprecedented, comprehensive global incarceration of the entire profession occurs before the deadline.

• Resolution will rely on consensus reporting from reputable news organizations (such as Reuters, AP, BBC) and official court records.

Background

The question touches on extreme rhetoric and conspiracy theories surrounding COVID-19 responses, public health mandates, gain-of-function research, and vaccine development. While legal inquiries, congressional hearings, and political debates regarding COVID-19 origins and pandemic management have occurred in various jurisdictions, universal prosecution or mass imprisonment of the medical, scientific, and public health communities has no precedent or legal framework in international or domestic law.