Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Herbert Kickl is officially sworn in as the Federal Chancellor of Austria (Bundeskanzler) at any point before January 1, 2031, 00:00 UTC.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Federal President of Austria (bundespraesident.at) or the Austrian Federal Chancellery (bundeskanzler.gv.at). Serving as acting chancellor or holding government negotiations without being formally appointed and sworn in as Chancellor will not satisfy the criteria.

If Herbert Kickl does not assume the office of Federal Chancellor before January 1, 2031, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

Herbert Kickl has led the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) since June 2021. In the September 2024 legislative elections, the FPÖ finished first with 28.8% of the vote. However, forming a government requires either a majority coalition or a parliamentary majority, alongside official appointment by the Federal President of Austria. Under standard constitutional schedules, Austria's next national parliamentary elections will take place no later than autumn 2029.