Markus Söder is Minister-President of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), a party primarily active in Bavaria and the sister party to the large Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Together, these parties form a parliamentary group in the Bundestag known as the Union. While the Chancellor candidate for this group has predominantly been from the CDU, which operates across Germany except in Bavaria, there is historical precedent for a CSU member to be nominated. Notably, Franz Josef Strauss from the CSU was the Chancellor candidate in 1980.

Söder’s personal ambitions became particularly evident during the leadership contest within the Union in 2021. Söder showed a keen interest in being the Chancellor candidate for the 2021 federal elections. He was engaged in a contest with Armin Laschet of the CDU for the Union’s nomination. Despite enjoying higher public opinion polls and significant support within segments of the Union, Söder ultimately stepped back, allowing Laschet to become the Chancellor candidate, who went on to lose the election to Olaf Scholz (SPD).

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Will be resolved YES when it happens, NO when it becomes virtually impossible (e.g., Söder steps back from politics altogether).