Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a designated far-right political party wins a majority or plurality of seats in the House of Representatives, or leads the governing coalition (with its party leader appointed Prime Minister), in the Japanese general election scheduled to occur no later than February 2030. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

For the purposes of this market, parties defined as far-right include Sanseito (参政党) and the Conservative Party of Japan (日本保守党). If another party claiming a far-right platform emerges or enters government, the market creator may clarify or edit the criteria prior to the election.

Official election results published by the House of Representatives of Japan and major media reporting (e.g., NHK, Kyodo News) will serve as the primary source of truth.

Background

Japan's next general election for the House of Representatives must take place no later than February 8, 2030, following the general election held in February 2026. While Japanese politics has long been dominated by the center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), explicit far-right and populist parties have expanded their parliamentary presence in recent years.

Sanseito, founded in 2020 on a "Japan First" platform emphasizing ultranationalism, opposition to immigration, and anti-establishment messaging, secured seats in both the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives. Similarly, the Conservative Party of Japan (Nippon Hoshuto), established in 2023, promotes ultranationalist policy positions.