If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
27
Ṁ1kṀ2.8k
2027
65%
chance

If a Macron-backed candidate (or one that runs for his coalition or his Renaissance party) fails to be elected president, will be a candidate of the far-right? (like Le Pen or a Le Pen-backed candidate)?

I'll rely on the press to determine the labels and therefore, I won't bet.

Market context
World
Europe
France
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?
13% chance
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
43% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Est ce que Macron démissionnera en 2026
6% chance
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
4% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
13% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
12% chance
Sort by:

What if Macron "backs" a different candidate in the second round?

@SamBogerd I'm not the market creator, but I think in runoff countries what counts for this kind of question is the endorsement in the first round.

Will this resolve N/A if a Macron-backed candidate is elected?

@Mattfr yes

Nothing but leftist dictatorship here on out

People are also trading

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?
13% chance
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
43% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Est ce que Macron démissionnera en 2026
6% chance
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
4% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
13% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
12% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy