If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
25
1kṀ26422027
66%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If a Macron-backed candidate (or one that runs for his coalition or his Renaissance party) fails to be elected president, will be a candidate of the far-right? (like Le Pen or a Le Pen-backed candidate)?
I'll rely on the press to determine the labels and therefore, I won't bet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
If the French government faces a new no-confidence vote before July 2025, will it succeed?
58% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
41% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
9% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
10% chance
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
60% chance
Who will represent the center in the future french presidential election in 2027
Sort by:
@SamBogerd I'm not the market creator, but I think in runoff countries what counts for this kind of question is the endorsement in the first round.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
If the French government faces a new no-confidence vote before July 2025, will it succeed?
58% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
41% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
9% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
10% chance
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
60% chance
Who will represent the center in the future french presidential election in 2027