If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
25
1kṀ2642
2027
66%
chance

If a Macron-backed candidate (or one that runs for his coalition or his Renaissance party) fails to be elected president, will be a candidate of the far-right? (like Le Pen or a Le Pen-backed candidate)?

I'll rely on the press to determine the labels and therefore, I won't bet.

World
France
Europe
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

If the French government faces a new no-confidence vote before July 2025, will it succeed?
58% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
41% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
9% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
9% chance
Who will be the next president of France?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
60% chance
Sort by:

What if Macron "backs" a different candidate in the second round?

@SamBogerd I'm not the market creator, but I think in runoff countries what counts for this kind of question is the endorsement in the first round.

Will this resolve N/A if a Macron-backed candidate is elected?

@Mattfr yes

Nothing but leftist dictatorship here on out

People are also trading

If the French government faces a new no-confidence vote before July 2025, will it succeed?
58% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
41% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
9% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
9% chance
Who will be the next president of France?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
60% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy