Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if democracy in the United States is deemed to have survived the second Trump administration. It will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to the end of the administration (scheduled for January 20, 2029):

1. No Presidential Election: The United States fails to hold a nationwide presidential election during the year 2028.

2. EIU Downgrade: In the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States' classification is downgraded to a "Hybrid regime" or "Authoritarian regime" (overall score below 6.00).

3. V-Dem Downgrade: In the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute’s annual Democracy Report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States is classified as either an "Electoral autocracy" or "Closed autocracy".

Sources for Verification:

• EIU Democracy Index: eiu.com

• V-Dem Reports: v-dem.net

Note: If both index reports are delayed beyond June 30, 2029, or if there is a discrepancy between the two indices, the market creator will resolve the market using a consensus of major international election observers and political science institutions, prioritizing whether a standard constitutional electoral and transition process occurred for the 2028 election.

Background

Discussions regarding the health of American democracy have been central to Donald Trump's second term, which commenced in January 2025. Following his inauguration, the 2025 EIU Democracy Index maintained the United States' classification as a "flawed democracy," though its overall score fell from 7.85 to 7.65. More notably, the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report 2026 indicated that ongoing political polarization and executive overreach had caused the U.S. to lose its long-term status as a "liberal democracy" for the first time in over 50 years, though it remained classified as an "electoral democracy". This market measures whether these democratic institutions hold or degrade further into an autocracy or hybrid regime by the close of the administration.