Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Clive Palmer is officially sworn in or takes office as the Prime Minister of Australia at any point prior to January 1, 2029, 00:00 UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official Australian government sources, such as the Governor-General of Australia or the Parliament of Australia. Acting prime ministerial appointments or minor caretaker roles that do not constitute becoming the substantive Prime Minister will not qualify.

Background

Clive Palmer is an Australian billionaire and mining magnate who previously served as a federal Member of Parliament for the seat of Fairfax between 2013 and 2016. Palmer has founded and bankrolled multiple political vehicles, including the Palmer United Party and the United Australia Party (UAP). Although Palmer has invested tens of millions of dollars into advertising across multiple federal election cycles, his parties have historically won limited representation in the federal parliament, typically holding isolated Senate seats rather than lower house majorities required to form government. Under Australia's Westminster system, the Prime Minister is almost invariably the leader of the party or coalition commanding a majority of seats in the 151-member House of Representatives.