Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Craig Kelly is officially sworn in or appointed as the Prime Minister of Australia at any time before January 1, 2029, Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT). Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined using official notices from the Governor-General of Australia or the Parliament of Australia. Acting or interim prime ministerial appointments that do not formally hold the commission of Prime Minister will not qualify.

Background

Craig Kelly served as the federal Member of Parliament for Hughes from 2010 to 2022. Initially elected as a member of the Liberal Party, he quit the party room in February 2021 to sit on the crossbench, later leading the United Australia Party (UAP) into the 2022 federal election. Kelly lost his seat in 2022 and subsequently served as UAP's national director before joining Pauline Hanson's One Nation in early 2024 as its federal campaign director. Under the Australian Westminster system, the Prime Minister is commissioned by the Governor-General, almost invariably as the leader of the party or coalition commanding a majority of confidence in the House of Representatives.