Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Pauline Hanson is sworn in or officially takes office as the Prime Minister of Australia at any point before January 1, 2029, 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official announcements from the Governor-General of Australia or records published by the Parliament of Australia. Acting or caretaker capacities count if and only if she is formally sworn in as Prime Minister.

Background

Pauline Hanson is the federal leader of Pauline Hanson's One Nation and serves as a Senator for Queensland. In Australian parliamentary convention, the Prime Minister is commissioned by the Governor-General based on commanding the confidence of the House of Representatives, and has historically almost exclusively been a member of the lower house (with John Gorton serving briefly as a Senator in 1968 before winning a by-election to the House of Representatives). One Nation has held seats primarily in the Senate, making a prime ministerial appointment highly contingent on unprecedented electoral shifts or crossbench negotiations.