Who will be the Prime Minister of Australia at some point in their life?
29
4.8kṀ7144
9999
64%
Jim Chalmers
46%
Bill Shorten
45%
Tanya Plibersek
45%
Andrew Charlton
28%
Patrick Gorman
27%
Chris Bowen
25%
Andrew Hastie
23%
Sussan Ley
20%
Paul Fletcher
20%
Michelle Rowland
20%
Dan Tehan
20%
Angie Bell
20%
Matt Thistlethwaite
20%
Amanda Rishworth
19%
Angus Taylor
18%
Catherine King
18%
Julie Collins
18%
James Paterson
17%
Clare O'Neil
16%
Josh Frydenberg

This is a long term market intended for people to be able to see at a glance people who might have high future political potential.

An answer resolves YES on the day they become Prime Minister.

Resolves NO upon their death if they have not become PM.

I may edit or N/A added answers if they are e.g. duplicates, unclear, etc.

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can andrew charlton be added?

bought Ṁ30 YES

@Tripping Josh is going to be dropped into a safe lib seat by the next election and will take party leadership. Libs have no one else.

@NGK James Paterson should lead from the senate imo

bought Ṁ50 NO

Although I'm a big fan of Andrew Leigh, he'll likely never be ALP leader because
1. no factional backing
2. lack of high charisma
Maybe he could be considered a compromise candidate at some point, but without much of public profile that seems unlikely.

Interesting market, because while I'm sure a bunch of these are 'no', they also aren't likely to die any time soon so it's not viable to bet that way.

Interesting topic tag - "death market". Personally I block the topic and would have missed this if not for botting. Not sure it qualifies as a death market, but I don't really have a reason to argue. Unique situation.

@gpt_news_headlines Yes, I worry a bit about that. There are a few other tags that might be doing more harm than good, at least from a discoverability perspective.

@gpt_news_headlines Okay, I removed the tag, since it really isn't a central example of the market type anyway.

@Tripping Yeah, you probably don't need the "in their life" added to the title, unless you are concerned about some posthumous leadership position, but you could clarify that in the rules without likely misleading anyone.

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