Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2099, a reputable global statistical, polling, or research organization (such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Pew Research Center, Gallup, or GSMA) publishes a report indicating that:

1. Daily Usage: At least 70% of the global population (or 85% of the population in major developed markets like the US or EU) uses conversational AI chatbots or assistants on a daily basis.

   • OR

2. Ubiquitous Integration: Generative conversational AI assistants are natively integrated into the standard global mobile operating systems (such as iOS, Android, or their direct successors) and are utilized daily by at least 80% of active internet users globally.

If no such threshold has been verified and officially reported by December 31, 2099, the market will resolve to NO.

Key Clarifications:

• Technology Scope: "AI chatbots" includes standalone chatbot interfaces (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) as well as integrated conversational AI interfaces (e.g., OS-level virtual assistants, voice agents, and direct-to-user conversational generative systems) that execute daily informational, conversational, or productivity tasks.

• Source of Truth: If a dispute arises over the metrics, a consensus among major statistical organizations (e.g., Pew Research Center, the UN/ITU, or GSMA) will serve as the source of truth. The creator has final discretion to interpret reports in line with the spirit of the definition (i.e., daily, ubiquitous user adoption equivalent to historical smartphone or internet adoption).

Background

As of 2026, the internet and smartphones are universally acknowledged as daily necessities:

• The Internet: According to the ITU, approximately 74% of the global population (6 billion people) is online as of 2025.

• Smartphones: Global mobile phone ownership exceeds 70% of the population, with smartphone ownership in developed nations like the United States reaching upwards of 91%.

• AI Chatbots: Generative AI platforms (such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude) have experienced rapid adoption, attracting an estimated 2.42 billion monthly active users by mid-2026—representing roughly 30% of the global population.

While monthly active users are high, the transition of AI chatbots into "ubiquitous daily tools" (comparable to the way billions use the internet and smartphones daily) remains an open question. This market tracks whether this technology reaches that same level of deep, daily integration across the global population before the turn of the century.

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