Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 9999, AI chatbots (defined as conversational artificial intelligence interfaces, including large language models and their direct technological descendants) are completely extinct or no longer in active operation anywhere.

This market resolves to NO if, at any point during the calendar year 9999, at least one conversational AI chatbot or its direct technological descendant remains functional and in active use.

Because of the exceptionally long timeframe, this market will remain open until the year 9999. If the hosting platform is no longer operational, the market will resolve according to the platform's ultimate consensus or successor mechanisms.

Background

The question of whether conversational AI chatbots will exist in the year 9999 touches on extremely long-term technological forecasting and existential risk. Some researchers and theorists speculate that human-designed AI systems could face obsolescence due to the rise of more advanced cognitive architectures, direct neural link interfaces, or existential catastrophes that render digital computing infrastructure non-viable. Conversely, others project that machine intelligence will persist indefinitely once established, potentially outlasting the human species itself.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.