Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, a major, reputable public polling or research organization (e.g., Pew Research Center, Gallup, or a comparable national statistical/census agency) publishes a survey indicating that 50% or more of surveyed adults in the United States (or a globally representative sample) use generative AI chatbots or LLM-based conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or their direct technological successors) on a daily basis (or "almost every day").

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.

Resolution Notes:

• If the specified polling organizations (Pew, Gallup) cease to exist before the threshold is met, comparable academic studies from major research institutions (e.g., MIT, Stanford) or official government census data will be used.

• If no definitive public polling data is available in the final years leading up to 2100, the market may be resolved using the best available historical data and a consensus poll of platform users at that time.

Background

As of mid-2026, generative AI adoption has made significant inroads, though it has not yet captured a clear majority for daily use:

• General Public Usage: A June 2026 Pew Research Center survey found that approximately 24% of U.S. adults use AI chatbots daily, while roughly 30% of U.S. teenagers (ages 13–17) report daily usage.

• Workplace Usage: Gallup data from mid-2026 indicates that 15% of U.S. employees use AI daily in their professional roles, with overall workplace utilization rising to 52%.

Despite growing integration, public sentiment remains complex; a significant portion of the population continues to express concerns regarding data privacy, accuracy, and the broader societal impacts of artificial intelligence. This market tracks whether these conversational interfaces will transition from emerging tech to an indispensable, supermajority utility over the course of the 21st century.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Resolution criteria

This market features two main options, Yes and No, which will resolve based on whether generative AI chatbots become a documented daily utility for a majority of the population before the turn of the century:

• Yes resolves to YES (and No resolves to NO) if, at any point before January 1, 2100, a major, reputable public polling or research organization (such as the Pew Research Center, Gallup, or a comparable national statistical/census agency) publishes a survey indicating that 50% or more of surveyed adults in the United States (or a globally representative sample) use generative AI chatbots or LLM-based conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or their direct technological successors) on a daily basis (or "almost every day").

• No resolves to YES (and Yes resolves to NO) if January 1, 2100, is reached and the 50% daily usage threshold has not been documented by any such reputable polling organization.

Resolution Notes:

• If the specified polling organizations (Pew, Gallup) cease to exist before the threshold is met, comparable academic studies from major research institutions (e.g., MIT, Stanford) or official government census data will be used.

• If no definitive public polling data is available in the final years leading up to 2100, the market may be resolved using the best available historical data and a consensus poll of platform users at that time.

• Since the answer addition mode is set to "ANYONE", any additional user-created answers will be resolved to YES or NO at the close of the market based on their specific wording or the creator's discretion.

Background

As of mid-2026, generative AI adoption has made significant inroads, though it has not yet captured a clear majority for daily use:

• General Public Usage: A June 2026 Pew Research Center report found that approximately 24% of U.S. adults use AI chatbots daily, while roughly 30% of U.S. teenagers (ages 13–17) report daily usage.

• Workplace Usage: Gallup tracker data from mid-2026 indicates that 15% of U.S. employees use AI daily in their professional roles, with overall workplace utilization (at least a few times a year) rising to 52%.

Despite growing integration, public sentiment remains complex; a significant portion of the population continues to express concerns regarding data privacy, accuracy, and the broader societal impacts of artificial intelligence. This market tracks whether these conversational interfaces will transition from emerging tech to an indispensable, supermajority utility over the course of the 21st century.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.