Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve YES or NO independently based on official certification and election returns from the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections (concluding with the seating of the 120th Congress in January 2027). The official seat count will be verified via the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives or major election reporting consensus (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ).

The total voting membership of the U.S. House of Representatives is 435 seats (218 required for an outright majority).

Options resolve as follows:

• Yes, Democrats will win a clear majority: Resolves YES if the Democratic Party wins 222 or more seats (a margin of at least +4 above the 218 threshold). Otherwise resolves NO.

• No, Republicans will retain or win the House: Resolves YES if the Republican Party wins at least 218 seats (an outright majority of the House). Otherwise resolves NO.

• Result will be a razor-thin or tied majority: Resolves YES if either party wins a majority of 221 seats or fewer (i.e., a majority margin of 7 seats or less, such as 218–217 through 221–214), or if seats are evenly split (e.g., due to vacancies or third-party/independent members preventing a 218-seat single-party majority). Otherwise resolves NO.

Note: If independent members caucus formally with either party, seat counts are determined by the member's party affiliation on official election certification unless otherwise clarified before election day.

Background

Historically, midterm elections in the United States often result in seat losses for the party holding the presidency ("midterm penalty"). Following the 2024 elections, Republicans secured unified control of government, winning the White House, Senate, and a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

Because recent House majorities across both the 117th, 118th, and 119th Congresses have hovered near historic narrow margins (often fewer than 222 seats for the majority party), whether any incoming majority can establish a comfortable margin or remains within single digits is a primary focus of midterm electoral forecasting.