Was about to bet this way up because I thought it meant Presidency, House, and Senate (and yes, I do know what the branches of the government are)

@bens Yeah understandable. Maybe that’s a more interesting market to make. Markets that ask ab balance of power usually have those and not the supreme court one presumably bc that one doesnt change during the election? But just making sure, based on this terminology do u think there’s ambiguity or is it pretty clear

I think the only reasonable definition of SCOTUS control would be if a majority of judges were democratic appointees. By this definition, it seems very unlikely Democrats will control SCOTUS: Even conditioning on a D trifecta in 2028, they would need two justices to die in a 1 year window.

i agree that definition is what is being used

To elaborate on the death probabilities:
Roberts would be 74 y.o. and would have a ~3.7% chance of dying in a year

Thomas would be 80 y.o. and would have a ~6.5% chance of dying in a year

Alito would be 78 y.o. and would have a ~5.3% chance of dying in a year

Gorsuch would be 61 y.o. and would have a ~1.5% chance of dying in a year

Kavanaugh would be 64 y.o. and would have a ~1.8% chance of dying in a year

Barrett would be 57 y.o. and would have a ~0.7% chance of dying in a year

All told, this is less than 2% for two to die.

Asked on the other question but: who controls SCOTUS?

@DavidFWatson currently, the GOP - it is the current Court that implemented their long-running policy of overturning Roe v. Wade, for instance. They also gave cover to an insurrectionist running for President.

@BrunoParga Sure, but how do we decide this in 2030? Whether a Democrat or a Republican nominated each justice? Who the median is?

@DavidFWatson I think I had misunderstood your question.

I think median is good.

@BrunoParga but again, median how? They don't have official party affiliations.