Mini
30
32k
resolved Feb 23
100%46%
Nf6
1.8%
Bd6
10%
Qe7
3%
dxe4
2.0%
d4
0.7%
Qh4
0.6%
f6
3%
c6
0.7%
f5
1.8%
Ke7
0.6%
Nc6
0.7%
Bg4
0.9%
g6
0.6%
g5
0.7%
h5
0.7%
h6
0.7%
Be7
0.4%
Nb7
0.7%
Ne7
0.4%
c7

I'm playing a chess game against manifold where the answer with the most probability will be your move, if there are multiple responses of the same answer then the one with the highest probability will be chosen, note that invalid moves will be ignored and the next highest one will be chosen.

Moves so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 d5 3. Nxe5

Manifold: Black

Me: White

Game so far:

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,495
2Ṁ647
3Ṁ413
4Ṁ285
5Ṁ184
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Please resolve

Funny how the whales are the only ones voting no on this xD

Any whales? Am I missing something?

I created chess market that isn't whalebait

Played in the last round of this. Not inclined to play in this one, but thinking of opening my own question about who will be the winner in the end! (I would bet on @DracksathAudio if he doesn't throw the game on purpose, given the strategy used by the opponent!)

@JensFiederer Good idea! If you make it share it here :p

bought Ṁ500 Answer #d2b49a3a6f75 NO

@JensFiederer oh turns out the creator thought of it:

@Bayesian Aw, 92% seems pretty reasonable!

@JensFiederer Honestly, I think it's too low. I just don't want to tie up my money.

@BobbyLee >92% chance that the game is completed? that he keeps playing good moves when the game is crushing? that he doesn't just leave manifold? etc.

@BobbyLee duplicate, can you edit to something like [INVALID ANSWER] or something to not get people confused

sold Ṁ2 Answer #d2b49a3a6f75 YES

@Bayesian The description says what happens if there are duplicate answers. Basically, both of them are valid, but only individually. (Not the total percentage)

@CharlesLien huh true

sold Ṁ0 Nb7 YES

@CharlesLien well that breaks the whole thing pretty quick, watch me spam the same thing over and over after buying 30% of Other

@Bayesian I won't do that but i welcome someone else to show everyone why duplicates are dumb

@Bayesian yeah I thought of that but probably not worth the mana to do that(?) costs 25 mana per answer and I don't think You're gonna make that much back

bought Ṁ6 Answer #eb46a596e00a YES

@Bayesian But even if that wasn't one of the market rules, someone else could equally just spam the answers with invalid moves

Also like @Tumbles I don't see what you were trying to achieve with d5 besides forfeit

@snarkyalyx the goal of this market is not to win, people don’t need to or are not required to bet with the goal of victory. Please keep that in mind if you or anyone else wishes to participate, we’re playing chess but we’re goofs who wont necessarily try to win

bought Ṁ10 c6 YES

@Bayesian I would still like to emphasise that I will still try to use this market for fun, and I do not care if you're looking to disrupt that for personal gain :P

bought Ṁ3 dxe4 YES

@snarkyalyx the strategic aspect of trying to beat other people at a risky game of "who will put more mana into their preferred option" is fun to me and many others; the fact that what's fun to you is selecting the best move is fine, but it's important that you recognize that other people aren't "toxic" or "trying to steal your fun" for having a different fun of their own

Warning: This is a Whalebait, meaning someone can, and is encouraged to, buy an option up at the last instant. There is no financial incentive for anyone to play the ‘correct’ move, so be warned that it is somewhat unlikely to be selected in the end. If you don’t know how a whalebait works or how it usually goes, I encourage you to ping me or others in the manifold discord and ask

bought Ṁ100 Answer #4bf2af796c4e YES

I think that's why my move is the superior option :D