Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll)

Question

I have a seperate question where you are able to add your own answers for possible moves for yourself, I will play as white and each move will be chosen by whichever answer has the highest probability, this market resolves when the chess game ends.

NOTE: If the game is a draw I have not one so it resolves as NO, and If there are two of the same move then the one with the higher probability is chosen.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (70 traders, as of Oct 8, 2026).