I have recently seen markets for manifold playing chess, however the main problem with the market is that it is whale bait and doesn't incentivize the traders to choose the best move.
Treat the probabilities in this market as the chance a certain move will lead to a win. At market close I will take the move that has been the highest ranking for the longest period of time and play it however the option won't immediately resolve. So an option will only resolve yes if at the end of the game white wins or no if white loses. Every other option will resolve N/A at market close. This will incentivize traders to choose the best move and won't benefit whales.
In computer chess championships instead of starting at the starting position it starts about 6 moves in to cause computers to play more exciting and different games. I have chosen one of those positions to start our game
this position is relatively equal and has been used in computer chess championships.
If your wondering who you're playing against you're playing against Stockfish. This may lead to only the best moves being made, but when computers play they don't always agree on the best move.
I will close the market every 3 days and then make a new one so your mana isn't too tied up.
Good luck, if you have any clarifying questions or don't understand how this works.
@traders I am going to N/A all my chess questions mostly because I don't think there is enough interest in these markets and there aren't really traders following these markets.
@harfe I was thinking about resolving no but now I see that i didn’t overtly state that if everyone thought something else then I’d be open to it.
@harfe I was just going to use the explorer feature on chess. com and then wait like 5-10 seconds and pick the best move nothing over the top so if you put the effort in you could beat it
Hey, I am not qualified to interact in this market. I'm a little bit too bad. I'm actually just here to watch and learn. So thank you for putting this up.
Wouldn't it be possible to buy all options and make profits that way? Everything resolves N/A, and the selected option would either resolve yes if Manifold wins or resolve N/A in the worst case. So either someone makes profits with this strategy, or doesn't lose.
btw link to the discord chat: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1205915322327113748
@Lion If manifold loses the option that is chosen resolves no so you have to be careful betting yes or no for either move
@JamesF Okay, now this feels like a multilevel whalebait. Just bet on every option no and loose the game later at any point by doing sth dumb. Sorry, I don't want to destroy it, just find ways to make it whalebaitproof and actually functional.
@Lion That's definitely true and this isn't perfect, but its definitely better than resolves to the highest percentage and if it gets enough liquidity it shouldn't be a huge problem. Also I would buy the options to no because of draws in chess and how good chess engines are.
@JamesF Maybe another idea: Create this market type and N/A everything (even the winner), create a seperate game result market with WIN, LOOSE and DRAW which closes before the game starts. Everyone who has a position on LOOSE or DRAW isn't allowed to place bets/will be ignored in this and future markets.
@Lion Maybe I could choose the answer that spends the most time in first so that it becomes unprofitable to keep bad answers in first
@Lion I have decided to do the answer which spent the most time at the top it is still able to be manipulated but is a far cry from the previous whale bait markets