I have recently seen markets for manifold playing chess, however the main problem with the market is that it is whale bait and doesn't incentivize the traders to choose the best move.

Treat the probabilities in this market as the chance a certain move will lead to a win. At market close I will take the move that has been the highest ranking for the longest period of time and play it however the option won't immediately resolve. So an option will only resolve yes if at the end of the game white wins or no if white loses. Every other option will resolve N/A at market close. This will incentivize traders to choose the best move and won't benefit whales.

In computer chess championships instead of starting at the starting position it starts about 6 moves in to cause computers to play more exciting and different games. I have chosen one of those positions to start our game

this position is relatively equal and has been used in computer chess championships.

If your wondering who you're playing against you're playing against Stockfish. This may lead to only the best moves being made, but when computers play they don't always agree on the best move.

I will close the market every 3 days and then make a new one so your mana isn't too tied up.

Good luck, if you have any clarifying questions or don't understand how this works.