🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During August 2024?
➕
Plus
27
Ṁ37k
resolved Sep 1
100%99.2%
12
0.1%
07
0.2%
10
0.1%
09
0.0%
11
0.0%
13
0.1%
15
0.1%
14
0.2%Other

How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During August 2024?


RESOLUTION


NOTES:

CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 12/23/2023: Occur During Beginning of August 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) -August 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)

  • 1/2/2024:

  • 1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.


DISCLAIMER

  • I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

  • DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.

  • If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@DistinctlySkeptical Resolves to 12.

I think this closed a day early

Permission to resume launches granted:

bought Ṁ500 YES
bought Ṁ100 NO

They might get a quick "the issue does not endanger public safety", depending on what the issue is.

https://x.com/edwards345/status/1828885347037786343
Losing a booster is always sad. Each one of them has a unique history and character. Thankfully this doesn’t happen often, due to the robust design and vigilance of the team. We are working as hard as we can to thoroughly understand root cause and get corrective actions in place ASAP. One thing we do know though is this was purely a recovery issue and posed no threat to primary mission or public safety.
https://x.com/rookisaacman/status/1828862995939963056
We’re just focused on recovery weather at this point. I think that is still gate to our launch.

Seems a fair amount of confidence that there is no public safety issue. But might still take time to get it written up adequately to get FAA to accept there is no public safety issue?

Berger has the same sentiment, yeah. But there's not that many days left in August...

Also this one, a bit more current:

And we currently have 9 successful launches for August, 4 launches with scheduled dates (those often slip, of course), and one launch with a "no earlier than" August listing.

(Scheduled launches appear on both https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/agency/upcoming/1/?search= and https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/schedule/ with specific time-and-date listings. The no-earlier-than appears on the former site as "NET August", and on the latter site as scheduled for 1 minute prior to midnight UTC on August 31.)

sold Ṁ45 NO

launch pad game of chicken now resolved it appears.

bought Ṁ750 NO

Current status is 6 successful launches, 5 scheduled launch dates, and 2 launches listed as NET August. So, betting heavily against OTHER on the theory that 6 or 8 are very unlikely (failure can happen, as we saw in July, but is low-probability), and that 14 or 16+ are even less likely.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules