MANIFOLD
Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly increases subjective wellbeing?
46
Ṁ910Ṁ2.7k
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
YES

Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.

https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952

At the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Subjective well-being defined as score on CES-D depression index.

https://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya

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The authors recently released a paper on the results: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf

I have not read it thoroughly yet but Table 9 shows the results for CES-D

The "Long term arm" has a significant decrease on the CES-D (a depression index), meaning a significant increase in subjective wellbeing.

Thus, I think I should resolve YES.

Please share any questions or concerns with this resolution.

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