Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly increases subjective wellbeing?
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resolved Jan 15
Resolved
YES

Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.

https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952

At the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Subjective well-being defined as score on CES-D depression index.

https://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya

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The authors recently released a paper on the results: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf

I have not read it thoroughly yet but Table 9 shows the results for CES-D

The "Long term arm" has a significant decrease on the CES-D (a depression index), meaning a significant increase in subjective wellbeing.

Thus, I think I should resolve YES.

Please share any questions or concerns with this resolution.